National Training Plan Methodology Paper

The development of a National Training Plan (‘the Plan’) is being undertaken by Health Workforce Australia (HWA) to assist Australia in achieving a goal of self-sufficiency in the supply of doctors, nurses and midwives by 2025.

The Plan will provide the estimated numbers of professional entry, postgraduate and specialist trainees that will be required between 2012 and 2025 to achieve this self-sufficiency goal.

The development of the National Training Plan is a significant first step towards the improvement of health workforce planning in Australia. 

As new national health workforce data sets improve, gaps are identified and jurisdictions and stakeholders work co-operatively, there will be subsequent steps which will iteratively build the voracity and comprehensiveness of health workforce planning in Australia.

This paper provides an outline of the modelling being used to develop the plan; which is mathematical simulation modelling together with scenario analysis.

The purpose of the simulation modelling is to allow us to take the knowledge we have of the current supply and demand of doctors, nurses and midwives and make projections into the future to show the likely trends in supply and demand, allowing us to identify any supply gaps or oversupply that could arise in future.

Adjustments can then be made to achieve a balance in the supply and demand for domestically-trained medical, nursing and midwifery professionals by 2025. 

For the purpose of the Plan, the simulation modelling will include in the second phase a “training pipeline” analysis. This allows us to determine the numbers of students and trainees required to achieve the balanced numbers of doctors, nurses and midwives and the rate at which new professionals can be trained.

Please provide written feedback to Maureen McCarty.